Massively Intelligent Machines: Part 1
“These massively intelligent machines will threaten man’s position as the dominant species.”- Hugo de Garis
Sixty years ago a massive metal box weighing 30 tons and filled with thousands of vacuum tubes was the most advanced computer known to man. RAM cost more than one dollar per byte. (One byte is enough memory to hold a single character of text.) Megahertz couldn’t even be used to describe the processors power but put simply, it contained less computing power than a musical greeting card you can find in any Hallmarkâ„¢. In the early days of computing various predictions about the future of the industry were made:
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of
science, 1949.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”
- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
“But what … is it good for?”
- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
” There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
Like most of you probably did, I chuckled when I read these. (OK, laughed uncontrollably.) Now processing speed is measured in multiple gigahertz (GHz) and hundreds of megabytes (MB) of RAM can be purchased for less than $50. I have a feeling I need not waste time reporting the fact that computers and their abilities have come a long way in 60 years. If you are reading this, I will assume you comprehend. What I would like to discuss, instead, is their future…
For the purpose of this article, I need to define “Massively Intelligent Machine”. Here is my definition: Computers with trillions of times more intelligence than a human being.
How will these Massively Intelligent Machines materialize?
Moore’s law states computing power doubles every 12-18 months. We have come to accept this as fact but have you ever looked at the raw numbers? Following Moore’s law, in 10 years – using 4 Ghz as the control – we will have single processors running in the range of 4000+ GHz. (also known as SoFastItHertz.)
We already rely on machines to run our factories, diagnose illness, invest our money, control our vehicles and countless numbers of other things. Interconnectivity is becoming the norm and in the near future every electronic device will be able to communicate with any another.
End part 1.
Part 2 will look at the technology currently being developed, a short history of artificial intelligence (AI) and leading minds in the field of AI. I will also attempt to discuss my opinion’s on how and why these “god-like” machines will eventually become a reality.
I have been working on this series for quite some time now. I hope you enjoy this post and those to follow.
